Meteorologists and environmental experts are preparing for another active air quality season in 2026, due to widespread, persistent drought conditions across the western and central U.S. and Canada. After an active 2025, experts forecast that conditions this summer may be similar. 

According to the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA), the state is expected to experience between 12 and 16 days of "significant wildfire smoke impacts" this summer. Significant wildfire smoke impacts include days when the air quality is in the "Orange" index value, which is unhealthy for sensitive groups, or worse. 

Meteorologists state that this is largely thanks to a strong El Niño cycle, which typically brings warmer and drier weather to the region, creating an environment where fires can easily ignite and spread.

In addition to smoke, MPCA meteorologists forecast four to six days where ground-level ozone may reach levels considered unhealthy for sensitive groups. 

By early August 2025, Minnesota had already recorded 31 air quality alerts, which was the third-highest total since record-keeping began in 2008. MPCA Meteorologist Matt Taraldsen told Boreal Community Media at that time that the duration of these alerts had also increased, with some events lasting five consecutive days across multiple regions.

Additionally, on June 3, 2025, Grand Portage hit a state record for the highest hourly concentration of fine particulate. 

Health Impacts

It's no surprise that consistent exposure to wildfire smoke can cause health impacts. A scientific study published in the journal Nature in September 2025 showed the significant health burdens of long-range wildfire smoke. The research found that extreme wildfire seasons, such as the 2023 Canadian fires, are responsible for approximately 5,400 acute deaths in North America annually due to short-term exposure, even for those thousands of miles from the actual blaze.

To help reduce health risks associated with prolonged smoke exposure, MN Dept. of Health and Cook County Public Health and Human Services officials recommend incorporating the following:

• Indoor Air Management: Keep windows and doors closed during alert days. For those without central air conditioning, experts recommend the "Corsi-Rosenthal box," a DIY air purifier made by attaching high-efficiency filters to a standard box fan.

• Limiting Exposure: Avoid activities that add to indoor pollution, such as smoking, burning candles, or using gas stoves. When driving, set vehicle ventilation to "recirculate" to prevent pulling in outside air.

• Protective Equipment: If outdoor activity is unavoidable, use a well-fitting N95 or P100 respirator. Standard cloth or surgical masks do not provide adequate protection against the fine particulate matter found in wildfire smoke.

• Vulnerable Populations: Children, older adults, and individuals with heart or lung conditions should monitor symptoms closely. This also extends to pets, who should have limited time outdoors during "Orange" or "Red" alert levels.