According to the DNR, fall colors, in "normal" years, peak from late September through mid-October, starting in the state's northern and northwestern regions and progressing south and east. The main driver of this change is the decrease in daily sunlight, which causes a reduction in the chlorophyll in trees, allowing other pigments to become visible.

While the decrease in sunlight is a consistent factor, other variables, such as temperature, precipitation, and wind, also play a role in the timing and intensity of the colors. "Brilliant fall color occurs when early fall days are sunny, nights are chilly, and there is adequate rainfall throughout the growing season," said Brian Schwingle, a DNR forest health program consultant. He also shared that an "earlier, lighter frost will shift peak fall color earlier in the fall color window," something that many in the area have experienced. 

In contrast to previous years with extreme drought or wet conditions, the DNR reports that much of Minnesota experienced a relatively dry May followed by decent precipitation from June through August. This has resulted in more leaves remaining on trees compared to recent years, which the DNR suggests will be a positive for the color season. 

For reference, in Cook County, 1.51" of rainfall fell in May, followed by 4.30" in June, 5.30" in July, and 1.65" in August. According to the Minnesota State Climatology Office, the average amount of rainfall for Grand Marais (calculated from data recorded between 1991 and 2020) is 2.94" for May, 3.81" for June, 3.61" for July, and 2.85" for August. 

Last month, Boreal Community Media shared a fall weather outlook from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center and the Farmers' Almanac, which forecasted that Minnesota is likely to experience above-average temperatures and below-average rainfall during September, October, and November. The forecast indicates up to a 40% chance of above-average temperatures for northern Minnesota. The precipitation outlook leans toward drier-than-average conditions for the season. This differs from The Farmers' Almanac extended forecast, which predicts a mix of fair and stormy weather in the Midwest for September, with the possibility of early snow in October and the first signs of winter by November.

To help track the progression of fall colors, the DNR is once again providing its Fall Color Finder. The Finder is updated regularly based on reports from DNR and USFS workers throughout the state. The tool is available on the DNR website and is also featured as a widget on boreal.org. Additionally, the DNR provides an interactive map that shows when, on average, colors peak throughout different areas of the state. Currently, there are patchy sections of the state that are experiencing a 10-15% color change. No significant change has been recorded for Cook County and Grand Portage. 

Based on data from 2012 to 2024, the typical fall color peak time is early October; however, it's still too early to tell if the recent early frost will affect the local colors.