Photo: Boreal Community Media files

By Laura Durenberger-Grunow - Boreal Community Media - March 5, 2026

While most areas across the Arrowhead are looking at a typical spring with a "normal" flood risk, the North Shore is facing a higher potential for spring flooding. According to the National Weather Service (NWS) in Duluth, this localized risk is driven by "above normal snow water" levels and a significant jump in the snowpack following the historic blizzard in mid-February.

The latest data, recently released by the NWS, shows that the highest concentration of water trapped in the snow is sitting in the "higher terrain of the North and South Shore." In parts of Cook and Lake Counties, this snow water equivalent ranges from 2 to 5 inches, with some higher elevations holding more than 5 inches of liquid. The NWS notes that while much of the region had a slow start to winter, "portions of Cook County" and the lake-effect belts are the exception. These areas are currently holding "above normal" snow depths, with many spots maintaining two feet of snow or more on the ground.

Additionally, the ground is currently "frozen with moderate frost depths," measured at approximately 9 inches. According to the NWS, these "well frozen soils could increase spring run-off" if the region experiences a rapid melt or if heavy rain falls on top of the existing snow. Even in areas where soil moisture is "below normal," the frozen ground can act as a barrier, leading to "poor infiltration and efficient runoff" once the thaw begins.

An updated outlook is expected from NWS by the end of next week.