Photo: Jessica Fadel on Unsplash.com

By Laura Durenberger-Grunow - Boreal Community Media - November 20, 2025

As we approach the Thanksgiving holiday next week, the National Weather Service (NWS) in Duluth issued a weather outlook that suggests travelers should prepare for a significant "pattern change" that could "usher the region into winter mode" and potentially cause travel disruptions. 

 The Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) 8–14 Day Outlook, which covers the Thanksgiving travel window (November 24–30, 2025), highlights a 50–60% chance of above-normal precipitation across much of the region. Additionally, there is a 20–40% risk for heavy snow across portions of the Upper Midwest, including northern Minnesota, from November 26–30. 

Image: NOAA

 Image: NOAA 

Looking immediately past the holiday, the transition to early December is expected to bring cold temperatures, with the Week 3–4 outlook (November 29 – December 12, 2025) favoring a 50–60% chance of below normal temperatures, and a 40-60% chance of above normal precipitation across the region. 

Image: NOAA

 Image: NOAA

The long-range seasonal forecast for December through February, according to NWS, leans slightly towards a cold, wet season (although confidence remains low in the forecast). Specifically, there is a 33–40% chance of below-normal temperatures and a 33–40% chance of above-normal precipitation. 

 Image: NOAA

 Image: NOAA

The primary climate influence is a weak La Niña, which is expected to persist through February 2026, with a 55% chance of transitioning to a neutral phase by the end of winter. NWS Duluth shared that a weak La Niña can (and has historically) result in high variability across the region.

Another resource, the Farmer's Almanac, predicts a winter characterized as "mild by local standards". The Almanac forecasts above-normal temperatures, alongside below-normal precipitation and snowfall.