Evening grosbeaks at bird feeder.

By Marcus Schneck from pennlive.com - October 12, 2021

Winter 2021-22 should not be an irruption year, which would send finch species like the evening grosbeak from the arboreal forests of northern Canada south as far as backyard feeders in Pennsylvania.

Based on food sources in the northern forests, the finches are expected to move south only as far as their normal southern wintering areas in southeastern Canada and northeastern U.S., noted Tyler Hoar, freelance ornithologist/consultant and winter finch forecaster, in the Finch Research Network’s annual Winter Finch Forecast.

“There will be movement of most finches varying by species and location in the boreal forest. So, you will be able to find most species, but it won’t be like last year when they came to so many people’s backyards. This year you’ll very likely need to go search for them,” he wrote.

While extreme weather will have a major impact in the West, from Lake Superior eastward in the boreal forest there is a “mosaic of poor to average” evergreen cone crops. However, “along the southern edge of the boreal forest, a belt of good to bumper food crop is reported from Lake Superior eastward through Central Ontario, southern Quebec Atlantic Canada to Newfoundland, southward to Northern New England, and New York state,” reported Hoar.

“This should be a good winter to see finches in traditional hotspots such as Ontario’s Algonquin Park, Quebec’s Laurentian Mountains, New York’s Adirondack Mountains, Atlantic Canada and the northern New England states.”

Here are Hoar’s individual species outlooks:

Evening grosbeak: In the fall of 2020, we experienced a generational irruption of evening grosbeaks southward. With that, we may experience an echo flight this fall. This year there is the “belt of food” between the 4 large spruce budworm outbreaks in eastern Canada and where they irrupted too last winter.

In the east, expect some birds to remain in the boreal forest and others to move south into Central Ontario, Southern Quebec, the Maritime provinces, New England states, New York and maybe Pennsylvania for the winter.

Pine grosbeak: There is a widespread good to excellent crop of Mountain ash berries Lake Superior eastward. This should keep most Pine Grosbeaks closer to home this winter.

Drought has most impacted mountain ash and other berry crops west of Lake Superior, with many berries shriveling on the stem. The Mountain ash crop in this area westward though the boreal forest generally appears poor with some areas of excellent crops. Areas in the upper Midwest states and cities in western Canada may see flocks of hungry grosbeaks searching for fruiting ornamental trees and well-stocked feeders with black oil sunflower seeds.

White-winged crossbill: With very poor cone crops reported from northwestern Ontario westward into Alaska, 2 visible movements of white-winged Crossbills have already been seen this summer. In western North America, white-winged Crossbills moved south into southern British Columbia/Alberta, and Pacific northwestern states with a few reported recently as far south as Utah.

During late June into July, there was an eastward movement into the robust spruce crop areas in eastern North America, particularly in Maine, Maritime provinces and Newfoundland. This winter, expect to see white-winged crossbill from central Ontario eastward to Newfoundland and southward into northern New York and New England, visiting traditional winter finch hotspots. We may even see white-winged crossbills away from the forests using heavy crops on planted native and ornamental spruces within urban environments.

Red crossbill: There is a good spruce and hemlock crop throughout central Ontario to southern Maritimes and northeastern states. Red crossbills are in their usual conifer haunts, and this should continue through much of the winter. Red crossbills will also be found south of the boreal zones where there are good Norway spruce forests.

Purple finch: Most years, purple finches migrate south out of Canada. This year most of the birds should leave, but we anticipate some will remain in Central Ontario to the Maritime provinces.

Between one observer reporting “a crazy number of purple finches” in mid-August and L’Observatoire d’oiseaux de Tadoussac having even stronger movements southwestward in Quebec this year than 2020, this species appears to continue to benefit from an abundant food source during the breeding season in the 4 large spruce budworm outbreaks.

Common and hoary redpolls: Given the seed crops on birch, alder and spruce are average to good, most redpolls will likely stay in the north from Lake Superior eastward. As the winter progresses, some trickling down of flocks into southern Canada and neighboring border states may occur.

Pine siskin: With the excellent spruce, hemlock and eastern white cedar crop across southeastern Canada and northeastern border states, most pine siskins in the east should remain in this area for the winter.

The annual report also noted 3 non-finch species that can see irruptive years:

Blue jay: There will be a moderate flight along the north shorelines of Lakes Ontario and Erie. Oak, beechnut and hazelnut crops are variable in central and southern Ontario, ranging from none to good. Insect defoliation has damaged many seed crops. A good number of blue jays should visit feeders this winter in Southern Canada.

Red-breasted nuthatch: While there currently appears to be a small echo flight, most red-breasted Nuthatches in the east should remain in the food belt in the northeast. Birds west of Lake Superior should be moving looking for food this fall.

Bohemian waxwing: Most Bohemian waxwings in eastern North America will remain in the boreal forest this winter because mountain ash berry crops are good to excellent from Lake Superior to Newfoundland and Labrador. West of Lake Superior, there should be more movement of flocks in search of areas with mountain ash crops.