It appears as though a weather pattern will be developing across the U.S. that points toward a strong chance for snow developing around the Christmas period. If the timing is right, we could have a white Christmas in the Great Lakes region.

The long-range forecast experts at NOAA issue a three-to-four week forecast every Friday. The forecast issued this past Friday screams of a wintry pattern developing sometime in the second half of December. It’s too early to pinpoint what the weather will exactly be like specifically on Christmas Day, but the period surrounding Christmas should have a winter weather system or two.

The forecast maps show why we should have the higher white Christmas hopes.

It takes cold air to make snow. The long-range forecasters are convinced we should lean toward colder than normal temperatures in the second two weeks of December. This is a temperature forecast averaged over two weeks, so we could have a day or two above freezing. In general though the temperatures point toward white stuff falling if we get precipitation.

Temperature forecast for December 17 to December 30 shows slightly colder than normal conditions.

The forecasters have also painted an increased chance of above normal precipitation for Michigan and the Great Lakes region.

Colder than average temperatures and some precipitation say snow around the Great Lakes.

The forecasters have a great discussion as to why they drew up the forecast maps in this way. They target four conditions in that period that will lead to a “U” shaped bend in the jetstream. Michigan and the Great Lakes would be in the “U” which is the cold side and the stormier side of the jetstream. They cite an interesting scenario in their long-range weather discussion. They say, “It is worth noting that the aforementioned anomalous troughing could usher in significantly cold air during the outlook period.” One of their most used long-range models shows much colder air. The rest of the models show moderately colder than normal air.

So we don’t know exactly what day and how much snow would fall. In the last two weeks of December there should be two or three weather-makers which should produce snow rather than rain.

Our hopes of a white Christmas can be inched up just a bit. We will know more sometime between December 10 and December 15.

We do know that historically some parts of Michigan already have a great chance of a white Christmas.

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